Many ‘Big Beautiful’ Losses Won’t Be Felt Til After Midterms, And That’s Intentional
This is your TPM evening briefing.
House Democrats have shifted to a new messaging strategy now that their Republican colleagues have given in to President Trump’s wishes and passed the devastating “big, beautiful” bill despite many Republicans’ supposed concerns about the legislation.
A sneaky, midterms-proofing provision is baked in to many of the unpopular impending cuts to social safety net programs — specifically, they’re not going to inflict pain on the electorate until after the midterms. The new Medicaid work requirements, for example — which are expected to kick some 9 to 14 million Americans off their health care coverage over the course of the next decade — won’t begin until 2027, and some states might qualify for extensions.
The requirement for Medicaid recipients who are not disabled and who are between the ages of 19 and 64 to begin reporting 80 hours a month of work to keep their enrollment won’t kick in until after November 2026. Similarly, the cuts to Medicaid provider taxes that states use to cover the costs of the program won’t take place until 2028.
There are some cuts that will be felt more quickly. Some of them fall into the bucket of culture war red meat — politically targeted stuff that goes after Obamacare, Planned Parenthood and non-citizens’ access to health care coverage. Per Axios:
Obamacare premiums would increase by more than 75% on average for enrollees next year without the enhanced subsidies. …
Medicaid funding of Planned Parenthood will also be cut off for next year under the bill — a change the family planning organization said could result in the closure of nearly 200 clinics.
Restrictions on which lawfully residing immigrants can access Medicaid will go into effect on Oct. 1, 2026. …
As the minority party in both chambers, Democrats were not ultimately able to block the bill’s passage in either chamber, but they have built up some messaging points about its reverse Robin Hood qualities: taking from America’s low-income and working class in order to extend tax cuts for the wealthy. Republicans have tried to bore the public with the details of the cuts they are pushing through in an attempt to (slightly) reduce the cost of the bill, speaking about the Medicaid and SNAP cuts in language of “reforms” and “common sense” work requirements.
Because of that obfuscation, and because many of the most damaging impacts of the legislation won’t be felt until after people have voted in the midterms next year, Democratic leadership is revving up its messaging this week while Congress is out to make that point explicit. Per the Washington Post:
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York), in an interview on “The View,” noted that Republicans’ massive tax and immigration package, which President Donald Trump signed into law last week, “has several provisions in the legislation that will not take effect until after the 2026 midterm election.” Some could be rolled back if Democrats take back the House next year, Jeffries said.
Unlawfully Fired Librarian Of Congress Has New Gig
You may recall the uproar a few months back when President Trump attempted to fire Librarian of Congress Carla Hayden and replace her with one of his closest allies, in an acting capacity. At the time, even some Republicans acknowledged they weren’t sure of the legality of the Trump administration’s move, as the Library of Congress is a legislative branch agency and under Congress’ purview.
It was just one of a series of actions the Trump executive branch was taking at the time to lawlessly flex power over the other branches of government.
The Associated Press was first to report on Hayden’s new position:
The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation exclusively told The Associated Press that Carla Hayden will join the humanities grantmaker Monday as a senior fellow whose duties will include advising on efforts to advance public knowledge through libraries and archives.
The year-long post places Hayden back at the center of the very debates over American culture that surrounded her dismissal. The White House ousted Hayden, the first woman and the first African American to hold the title, after she was accused of promoting “radical” literary material by a conservative advocacy group seeking to squash Trump opposition within the federal government.
Senate Has To Deal With Rescissions Now
The House rubber-stamped the White House’s request for $9.4 billion in federal spending cuts to NPR, PBS and foreign aid programs earlier this summer, but it appears some Republicans in the Senate aren’t exactly salivating to do the same.
The upper chamber has until July 18 to pass the measure — a rescissions package sent over from the executive branch that includes a fraction of the federal spending that Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency slashed during that rampage earlier this year. The package officially rescinds Congress’ allocation of those funds before the Trump administration is forced to spend it as Congress allocated it.
According to new reporting in Politico, it appears some Senate Republicans want to draft their own rescissions package rather than passing another constitutionally backwards spending cut demanded — and in some ways already implemented — by the White House, trampling on Congress’ authority to determine spending.
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